Roche appreciates 5.8% on promising oral anti-obesity data
NEWS. Roche finished Wednesday 5.8% up, corresponding to more than USD 16 billion in market cap, after disclosing Phase 1 data from CT-996 in obese patients, showing 7.3% weight loss (6.1% placebo-adjusted) after four weeks of treatment. Importantly, there were no treatment discontinuations, and according to the company the compound’s side effect profile is in-line with other similar molecules.
BACKGROUND. Roche entered the obesity field at the end of 2023 by acquiring Carmot Therapeutics for USD 2.7 billion with three clinical drug candidates. One of them, CT-996 is an oral small molecule targeting GLP-1, the same peptide as Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide (brand name: Wegovy, Ozempic).
COMPETITION. Although only limited data was disclosed this time, CT-996 compared favorably to peers. As an oral drug it is thought to be more convenient than injectables and as a small molecule it is easier and cheaper to manufacture than (oral) peptides, which are more complex chemical constructs built from amino acids.
More specifically, CT-996 apparently led to a numerically larger and more rapid weight loss than Viking Therapeutics’ GLP-1/GIP agonist oral peptide (5.3% weight loss in 4 weeks, 3.3% placebo-adjusted). However, Viking’s drug has a clean safety profile, while Roche did not disclose any further details on the side effects of CT-996. Roche’s drug also compares favorably to Eli Lilly’s orfoglipron and Structure Therapeutics’ GSBR-1290, that showed a 6-8% weight loss in 12 weeks. Additionally, competition is expected to intensify among oral small molecules aiming to treat obesity, as other large companies including AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Gilead are also working on similar drugs, not to mention several smaller biotech companies like Terns Pharmaceuticals, that also plan to establish themselves in the field of obesity.
UNCERTAINTIES. While comparing drugs across different clinical trials can be useful, this exercise comes several caveats. We do not know much about dose escalation in Roche’s trial - that is how frequently and to what extent did the company increase the dose during the trial – which varies trial by trial and can substantially affect the results. Additionally, no details on the side effect profile were disclosed, but Roche will present it at a medical conference, which will further clarify the picture.
CONCLUSION. To sum up, this announcement came at a favorable time for Roche. After multiple clinical setbacks in the last couple of years these favorable early results are a step towards restoring investor confidence in the company’s drug development capabilities.
Latest news
Arctic Asset Management - Markedskommentar september 2025
September ble en stabil børsmåned. Norden og Oslo var nær uendret med -0,1 % avkastning for både fondsindeksen OSEFX og den nordiske VINX Benchmark Cap målt i NOK. Så langt i år er Oslo Børs opp med 17,4 %. I USA steg S&P 500 indeksen med 3,6 % i september målt i dollar, og den europeiske STOXX 600 indeksen steg med 1,5 % målt i euro. Verdensindeksen (MSCI World NR) steg 2,4 % i september og er opp 2,9 % i norske kroner hittil i år.
Arctic Asset Management - Oncology company Merus to be acquired by Genmab for a 41% premium
Danish biotech Genmab to pay USD 8 billion to add Merus’ bispecific antibodies to their platform
Arctic Asset Management - Gene therapy from UniQure slows progression of Huntington’s disease by 75% in clinical trial
Breakthrough results from a three-year trial of a treatment for a severely debilitating neurological disease led to a surge of almost 250% in the stock price of Arctic Aurora LifeScience's portfolio company.
Arctic Asset Management - Arctic Midt i Måneden - Muligheter på børsen: Fantastisk inntjening, prising og et litt uvanlig rentebilde
Fantastisk inntjeningsvekst på Oslo Børs, fornuftig prising og et rentebilde som vi må følge godt med på - er tema i denne episoden av Arctic Midt i Måneden. Investeringsdirektør Albert Collett har med seg aksjeforvalter Sindre Sørbye og renteforvalter Vegard Kjølhamar i studio for å diskutere hva dette betyr for markedet fremover – og hvor mulighetene kan ligge for investorer.
Arctic Asset Management - Markedskommentar august 2025
August ble preget av bred oppgang i aksjemarkedene støttet av makrotall fra USA og Europa. Politisk usikkerhet setter fortsatt sitt preg på utsiktene med Ukraina, og Federal Reserve Board i fokus forrige måned. Verdensindeksen (MSCI World) steg 2,6 % (-0,1 % omregnet til NOK), amerikanske S&P 500 (USD) var opp 1,9 % (-0,7 % i NOK), den nordiske VINX-indeksen (NOK) økte 2,5 %, og Oslo Børs (OSEFX, NOK) var opp 1,9 %. Så langt i år er verdensindeksen opp 11,5 % (0,5 % omregnet til NOK), USA opp 9,8 % (-2,7 % i NOK), Norden ned 0,7 % og Norge opp 17,5 %.
Arctic Asset Management - Arctic Midt i Måneden - Høstens muligheter i norske og nordiske aksjer
Det norske aksjemarkedet har levert sterk avkastning så langt i år , fortsettelsen ser også bra ut med attraktiv verdsettelse og mange muligheter. I denne episoden møter Sindre Sørbye og Herman Østensen Investeringsdirektør Albert Collett til en samtale om hvilke selskaper og industrier som peker seg ut nå. De deler erfaringer fra rapporteringssesongen og over 40 møter med selskaper i Stockholm forrige uke, og diskuterer hvilke temaer og muligheter som vil prege høsten.