Since our last insight about the current monkeypox outbreak https://www.arctic.com/aam/en/news/insight-monkey-pox the situation has developed in multiple ways. Cases have been increasing continuously since May 2022 and on 23 July the WHO classified the current outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. According to the CDC, almost 24 000 cases have been reported globally from at least 80 countries from which the vast majority have not historically reported monkeypox cases. Although these numbers are still way below the levels of Covid or flu, the pace of spreading, the number of cases and the global presence of the disease surely warrant international attention.
This international attention is also reflected on the stock market, and our investment team was able to capture a substantial upside in both Arctic Aurora LifeScience and Arctic Aurora Biotech Select. After the news about the first cases in May, our investment team quickly recognized that this could develop into an outbreak and that governments around the world are likely to take action to handle the situation. This led to an investment in Bavarian Nordic early in the outbreak. This company is the main supplier of monkeypox vaccines globally. Since May, the US government ordered 7 million doses for 2022 and 2023. The company also received orders from the European Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA), from the Canadian government and from multiple undisclosed countries. Additionally, Bavarian Nordic`s monkeypox vaccine also received a European approval to extend its label from smallpox to monkeypox and the company also received US and EU approvals for their fill and finish manufacturing facility. Besides, the company is reported to be in dialogue with multiple contract manufacturers to increase production.
Due to these positive developments, in only a couple of months Bavarian Nordic more than doubled its revenue guidance for 2022. This was also reflected in their share price as our initial investment from Arctic Aurora LifeScience and Arctic Aurora Biotech Select returned 85% to date.